1.
Please share your organization's overall feedback on the Resource Adequacy Modeling and Program Design Track 1 Draft Final Proposal, as discussed during the virtual stakeholder meeting held on September 17, 2025.
Given the evolving resource mix, CPUC Energy Division Staff (ED Staff or Staff) appreciate CAISO’s efforts to enhance its reliability requirements and its default resource adequacy (RA) program design. CAISO staff have consulted and socialized its modeling approaches and results with ED Staff to stay as aligned as possible with CPUC’s RA design efforts. ED Staff appreciates this close collaboration and looks forward to further coordination as CAISO refines and enhances its reliability modeling and default resource counting rules.
On August 25-27, 2025 CAISO posted its Track 1: Modeling and Default Rules Draft Final Proposal and Track 2: Outage and Substitution Straw Proposal on resource substitution. CAISO held a workshop on August 28, 2025, to discuss both proposals. CAISO held another stakeholder workshop on September 17, 2025 (see presentation), which included further revisions to its Track 1 proposal involving the UCAP calculation.
CAISO stated its objectives in Track 1 are[1]:
- The default counting rules included in the CAISO tariff should reflect the relative contribution of different resource types—and individual resources—to maintain balancing authority area (BAA)-wide and local reliability
- The planning reserve margin (PRM) methodology in the CAISO tariff should be designed alongside such counting rules to create a coherent set of RA standards
- If these standards were adopted by all local regulatory authorities (LRAs) within the BAA, the resulting compliant LSE capacity portfolios could reasonably be expected to meet at least a 0.1 loss of load expectation (LOLE)
CAISO states that based on party feedback, CAISO is proposing the following default counting methodologies:
- Thermal, Renewable Thermal, Pumped Hydro, and Nuclear: Availability of Resources in at-risk hours defined by supply cushion using unforced capacity (UCAP).
- Battery Storage, Solar, Wind, and Hydroelectric: Average Effective Load Carrying Capability (ELCC).
- Energy battery storage will use average ELCC. (This is a change from the June proposal to use UCAP.)
The Straw Proposal and subsequent September 17, 2025, stakeholder meeting, outlined CAISO assumptions used to develop the UCAP resource values, which includes the following:
- Utilizes the last three years of historical data with the most recent year having a higher weight.
- To determine the at-risk hours, when outages would be included in the UCAP calculation CAISO proposed a supply cushion approach that defined the at-risk hours based on data reflecting the least amount of available supply over the net peak demand. However, at the September 17, 2025, stakeholder meeting, the CAISO revised the method to utilize the hours observed in its Summer Assessment modeling which include the following time periods: Summer Hour Ending (HE) 17-22 and Winter HE 6-9 and 17-22.
CAISO proposes to seek CAISO Governing Board for approval in the fourth quarter of 2025 for the Track 1 default qualifying capacity counting rules and default PRM proposal to the.[2] Further, CAISO notes that tariff filings to FERC would occur in second quarter of 2026. The CPUC plans to finalize its UCAP methodology in second quarter of 2026. To support collaboration, it is reasonable for CAISO to wait until after the CPUC finalizes the UCAP methodology to seek CAISO board and FERC approvals.
While ED Staff appreciate the continued collaboration CAISO staff on this topic, several concerns remain regarding the Draft Final Proposal particularly with respect to coordination, schedule, and proposal details.
First, in the recent CPUC Track 3 RA decision, D.25-06-048, adopted on June 26, the Commission authorized ED Staff to continue to coordinate with the CAISO on the development of the UCAP proposal with a target implementation date in the 2028 RA compliance year. The CPUC’s decision reflects broad party support for continued coordination with CAISO on the CPUC’s UCAP design. However, because the Straw Proposal seeks CAISO Board approval in the fourth quarter of 2025, it would effectively limit the opportunity for continued collaboration on UCAP design.[3] ED Staff intend to continue to facilitate party engagement on UCAP design elements leading up to expected CPUC decision in June 2026. Deferring finalization of CAISOs UCAP approach until after the CPUC issues its final decision is to both reasonable and would minimize potential confusion should CAISO modify its UCAP methodology after the CPUC issues its decision. CAISO risks implementing a UCAP rule only to change it after a short period of time.
Second, ED Staff are also concerned that CAISO is now proposing to use ELCC for battery energy storage instead of UCAP (as previously proposed). It is ED Staff’s understanding that CAISO’s rationale for this change is its continued focus on assessing only the monthly peak hour for RA purposes, and its view that an ELCC methodology is better suited to this single-hour framework while also addressing charging sufficiency need. ED Staff are still actively developing a UCAP methodology for battery energy storage consistent with the direction provided in D.25-06-048. While CAISO’s proposal is a default QC methodology (used in cases where the Local Regulatory Authority does not provide CAISO one), Staff is concerned that having two fundamentally different approaches to resource counting for battery energy storage will create confusion in the market and further the growing gap between CPUC and CAISO RA alignment.
Third, ED Staff remain concerned that the CAISO RA program continues to be focused on the measurement of capacity at the time of the monthly peak which may not be highest hour at risk as the resource mix and demand shapes continue to evolve. The Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) studies indicate the hours of most risk are around the net peak, and over time the risk of loss of load is expected to move later in the evening. ED Staff encourage CAISO to refine its RA framework to better align with the CPUC’s Slice of Day framework which examines if there is capacity during all hours of the peak day of each month. In prior comments, ED Staff suggested examining the peak and net peak as a transition to a full SOD like assessment.
Finally, there is also the issue of input assumptions and modeling techniques. In CAISO’s September 17, 2025, presentation at slide 23, it states that utility demand response was removed from the reliability model because these resources are not on the NQC list and will not be given QC values. The use of demand response is a state policy preference[4] and CAISO should include demand response, including reliability demand response resources in the reliability model. The CPUC modeling assumptions include both proxy demand resources that are on the NQC list as well as utility demand response programs that are provided with RA credits.
The demand response modeling assumption is just one example of modeling assumption differences between the CPUC and CAISO on calculating a PRM. Other differences include, but not limited to, CAISO removed thermal generation while the CPUC utilizes increasing demand and adjustments to imports in performing calibration and developing monthly PRMs. The CAISO used the Plexos model while the CPUC used the SERVM model. In the final proposal, the CAISO should refine the documentation on the assumptions used in its PRM study because the PRM results between CAISO and CPUC reflect different modeling assumptions with associated trade-offs as well as a different reliability model. It should be noted that both organizations produce results that the existing RA fleet produces results that more than achieves the 1 outage in 10 years reliability standard for 2026-2027, and calibration is performed that either removes generation or adds load or restricts imports.
Staff appreciate CAISO’s desire to undertake its own reliability studies. However, it is not clear to Staff how these studies would be different from the reliability studies currently undertaken by the CPUC in the IRP and RA proceedings. It will be critical that the CAISO work to align its future reliability modeling with inputs and assumptions being used by the CPUC in setting RA obligations and the ones used in the SB 846 Joint Reliability Report (authored by the CEC and CPUC) to avoid confusion regarding reliability risk and procurement. The CPUC is committed to running regular LOLE studies in its RA proceeding to look at the need for adjustments to the PRM. In addition, to translate the results of an LOLE study to the CPUC’s new Slice of Day (SOD) Framework, the Commission adopted a SOD calibration process that utilizes SOD accounting rules to calculate the PRM level to be used in setting RA requirements. It is important that CAISO studies are aligned with these regular RA LOLE studies and the PRM calibration process to ensure there is no confusion regarding reliability and procurement needs. The inputs and assumptions used in these studies (particularly import and new resources) drive the results of these studies and that is why alignment of input assumptions is so critical
Comments on CAISO's RAMPD Track 2 Straw Proposal, which was posted on August 26, 2025.
CAISO recently posted its Track 2 straw proposal that focuses on reforms needed to its outage substitution rules. Regarding the problem statement the straw proposal states:
“The agreed-upon problem statement developed by the working group articulated the following challenges with today’s outage and substitution processes:
- There are inefficiencies as multiple SCs hold back RA capacity for outage substitution for a partial-month outage. This practice drives artificial tightness in the RA bilateral market because in total more capacity is held back than needed for substitution.
- Current practices may result in potential maintenance delays if substitute capacity is not available. CAISO has observed higher forced outage rates because planned outages cannot be scheduled and the resource ultimately experiences a forced outage.”
To address the problem, CAISO Straw Proposal explores options for an outage and substitution pool to facilitate trades for substitution capacity. Parties with excess capacity could offer capacity into the pool. CAISO staff noted that: “Buying SCs can browse these listings and then “check out” to confirm the transaction. Financial settlement for these transactions would occur directly between the buying and selling SCs, outside of CAISO’s systems.” ED staff is supportive of the concept of an enhanced bulletin board to facilitate transactions for capacity substitution between parties but does not support the development a market—such as the one proposed by the CAISO Department of Market Monitoring—for capacity substitution.
[1] CAISO Resource Adequacy Modeling, Default Rules, and Ambient Derates (Track 1) Straw Proposal (June 6, 2025) at 4
[2] CAISO Presentation RAMPD Track 1 (Sep 17, 2025) at slide 18.
[3]Items for addition review include, but not limited to, the definition of forced outages, hours representing constrained time periods (supply cushion), and ambient temperature derates that are used in the UCAP calculation.
[4] SB1414 (2014) requires the CPUC to include demand response in RA planning so excluding it from RA planning would be counter to the state’s policy preference for demand response.