4.
Provide your organization’s feedback on the Planned Outage Process Enhancements topic as described in section 5.1.1:
Cal Advocates supports the CAISO’s decision to reject Option 1 as described in the Fourth Revised Straw Proposal; however, Cal Advocates has concerns about the two phased approach proposed by the CAISO in the Resource Adequacy Enhancements Draft Final Proposal – Phase One and Sixth Revised Straw Proposal (“DFP1-6RSP”) in lieu of Option 2.[1] Cal Advocates was among the parties that opposed Option 1, on the grounds that Option 2 would be significantly more cost efficient than Option 1. Specifically, Cal Advocates emphasized that Option 2 would only require procurement of capacity on days when capacity is actually needed to maintain reliability.[2]
The first phase of the CAISO’s Planned Outage Process Enhancements proposal would require LSEs to provide full capacity substitution for all planned outages in summer 2021.[3] Cal Advocates is concerned that requiring full substitution for all planned outages on such a short timeline will increase ratepayer costs through last-minute procurement. The second phase of the CAISO’s proposal would continue to be developed through subsequent revised straw proposals designed to create, “a longer-term proposal for a planned outage resource pool concept effective for RA year 2023 and beyond.”[4] The CAISO’s proposal does not specify what requirements would govern planned outage substitutions for RA year 2022. If the CAISO adopts the first phase solution, Cal Advocates prefers a pilot program for only summer 2021, with an opportunity for ex-post evaluation before CAISO considers any permanent changes.
The second phase of the CAISO Planned Outage Substitution Process proposal is still underdeveloped but contemplates utilizing a summer planned outage pool of substitute capacity. However, the CAISO notes that a “significant challenge for developing a summer planned outage pool will be finding sufficient non-RA capacity to participate in the pool.”[5] It is unclear why a non-RA resource would participate in a planned outage pool without receiving capacity payments. Likewise, the proposed planned outage pool appears to function identically to RA capacity. Thus, the CAISO’s proposal appears to function similarly to a planned outage reserve margin, extending to cover the full year (rather than only non-summer months). Cal Advocates looks forward to coordinating with the CAISO and other stakeholders to solve these and other issues raised in the second phase proposal.
[1] “Option 1 established a planned outage reserve margin for off-peak months. Option 2 established a replacement marketplace conducted by the CAISO.” Draft Final Proposal - Phase 1 and Sixth Revised Straw Proposal, December 17, 2020 (DFP1-6RSP), December 17, 2021, p. 12.
[2] Comments of the Public Advocates Office on the Resource Adequacy Enhancements Fourth Revised Straw Proposal, April 14, 2020, p. 4.
[3] DFP1-6RSP, p.13.
[4] DFP1-6RSP, p. 13.
[5] DFP1-6RSP, p. 18.
5.
Provide your organization’s feedback on the Resource Adequacy Import Requirements topic as described in section 5.1.2:
The CAISO proposes to require scheduling coordinators (SC) to submit an attestation for each import contract certifying four attributes of any RA import product. The four attributes are summarized in Table 1 along with Cal Advocates’ position on each proposed requirement.
Table 1
Attestation requirement[1]
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Cal Advocates’ Position
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Cal Advocates’ Proposal
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1. The capacity shown is owned or contractually secured
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Support, if the burden of proof is on the generator and not the scheduling coordinator.
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Replace attestation requirements #1 and #2 with a requirement that RA import contracts include a provision defining legal recourse to SCs if generators violate their contractual commitments.
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2. The capacity shown has not been sold or otherwise committed to any other party than the LSE identified on the plan
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This requirement cannot be verified.
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3. The capacity can only be interrupted for reliability reasons as determined under the host BAA’s tariff, a transmission curtailment, or a plant outage
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Support, but the CAISO already has authority and the tools to enforce this requirement.
|
|
4. Transmission service of proper firmness has been reserved for the delivery of the RA import resource(s) to the CAISO
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Oppose. This requirement will raise prices of imports. Additionally, market share at the Nevada-Oregon Border interconnection is highly concentrated.
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Substantial study of transmission rights markets is necessary before adopting a firm transmission requirement.
|
Attestation requirement #1 requires the scheduling coordinator (SC) to attest on behalf of a generator that the capacity shown is owned or contractually secured. However, the commitment that the proposed attestation is intended to address should instead be demonstrated by the generator. The CAISO’s proposed attestation would require the SC to bear the risk in the transaction. Under the CAISO proposal, the LSE functioning as an SC is responsible if a generator reneges on a commitment. This does not solve the credibility problem the proposal attempts to address and is fundamentally unfair to the LSEs who are unable to prevent contract violations on the part of out-of-state generators. Cal Advocates recommends that the CAISO shift the attestation burden from the SC to the resource owner.
Attestation requirement #2 requires that the capacity shown by the LSE has not been sold or otherwise committed to any party other than the LSE identified on the plan. This attestation would essentially confirm that attestation requirement #1 is true. However, empirically confirming the veracity of attestation requirement #2 is impossible because there is no universal register of capacity contracts to demonstrate the exclusive commitment of an individual generating resource. At the January 6, 2021 workshop, the CAISO provided a helpful example of a generator that contractually commits the same capacity to both the CAISO and another ISO.[2] In this example, the generator is contractually obligated to provide the same capacity to both LSEs; however, in reality, the capacity is only available to one LSE. In the CAISO’s hypothetical, the generator is a bad faith actor who is violating its contracts. However, contract law exists to solve this problem. Requiring SCs to attest that capacity is not committed elsewhere requires a level of insight into the universe of RA contracts beyond the CAISO that is unavailable to LSEs or the CAISO. Fundamentally, the CAISO’s proposal still depends on generators acting in good faith to meet contractual obligations.
Cal Advocates urges the CAISO to consider replacing attestation requirements #1 and #2 with a requirement that RA import contracts include a provision defining legal recourse to SCs if generators violate their contractual commitments. Although such a contractual provision would not solve the ex-ante commitment problem, it nonetheless provides the CAISO with additional assurance vis-á-vis the enforceability of RA import contracts. This provision would provide an incentive for generators to comply with their commitments, while also mitigating risk to the SC by shifting risk to the generator.
Attestation requirement #3 requires that capacity can only be interrupted for reliability reasons as determined under the host BAA’s tariff, a transmission curtailment, or a plant outage. Cal Advocates supports attestation requirement #3 and urges the CAISO to implement this requirement immediately. At the January 6, 2021 workshop, the CAISO stated that attestation requirement #3 would be enforced by analyzing bid behavior as well as delivery and non-delivery behaviors as indicators that capacity is committed elsewhere.[3] In addition, the CAISO confirmed in an email response that “[a]s the market operator, the CAISO has access and authority to view and analyze market participant actions in its market and refer issues to DMM.”[4] The CAISO’s statement confirms that the CAISO already has the necessary tools to investigate problematic bidding behavior. Therefore, the CAISO should analyze these problematic behaviors to uncover evidence of shadow generator behaviors. Cal Advocates supports adoption of attestation requirement #3. Cal Advocates encourages the CAISO to use the tools that is has available to prevent capacity interruptions.
Attestation requirement #4 requires the LSE to attest that transmission service of proper firmness has been reserved for the delivery of the RA import resource(s) to the CAISO. If implemented, this new transmission requirement would likely increase the price of RA imports, thereby increasing ratepayer costs, driving down supply, and threatening reliability. Two mechanisms could contribute to increased ratepayer costs. First, it is unclear that RA imports with bundled transmission rights are easy to obtain or currently exist. Second, the need to procure transmission rights would lead to a higher cost of service, and the CAISO’s market analysis suggests that increased demand for transmission rights will lead to opportunities to exercise market power.[5] Cal Advocates addresses these two concerns separately as follows:
Requiring firm transmission on the last leg is more complicated than the current proposal anticipates and requires substantially more analysis.
Assembling the proposed RA import with firm transmission product will require aligning lumpy generation capacity with inflexible delivery terms, creating seams issues. The availability of transmission rights is in part related to the delivery term length of the transmission rights. While an LSE may only require a month or two of RA imports to meet the LSE’s requirements, transmission rights terms are denominated in years, not months. As Silicon Valley Power explains,
[an] LSE might need to make a multi-year commitment to obtain, for example, [Bonneville Power Administration (BPA)] transmission because the [Open Access Transmission Tariff] transmission is awarded on a priority basis to parties making longer term requests. If BPA happens to have sufficient transmission available, the CAISO LSE might be able to obtain the transmission from BPA at cost-based rates. But if such transmission is not available directly from BPA, the CAISO LSE would need to obtain the transmission from third parties who are not obligated to sell the transmission and are not required to offer it at cost-based rates.[6]
In other words, LSEs would have to purchase several years’ worth of firm transmission rights to meet a few months’ worth of need, leading to overprocurement of transmission rights at the expense of ratepayers. The incongruity between California’s monthly RA program and the annual terms of firm transmission rights poses a significant seams challenge to the CAISO’s proposed RA imports requirements.
Another challenge to CAISO’s proposal is that long-term transmission rights are only available when a holder’s claim expires after a defined term. As the California Community Choice Association (“CalCCA”) has noted, long-term transmission rights are not readily available because incumbent rights holders have the right of first renewal. CalCCA analyzed BPA data and points out that, “Between 2012 and 2018, in five of the seven years none of the megawatts up for renewal were released. In the two years that megawatts were released, only 20 MW and 148 MW, 4% and 31% were released. [emphasis added]”[7] This data describes a primary market with scarce supply. The CAISO’s proposal to require firm transmission rights on the last leg of transmission is overly optimistic about the liquidity of long-term transmission rights and ignores the potential for incumbent rights holders to squat on those rights to drive up prices. A lack of firm transmission rights paired with higher prices could threaten reliability if LSEs are unable to procure adequate RA imports. Additionally, there is no obvious secondary marketplace for obtaining these long-term transmission rights beyond contacting individual rights holders bilaterally; thus introducing another layer of coordination complexity to the CAISO’s proposed RA with firm transmission rights product.
Firm transmission rights markets present opportunities for exercising market power
The CAISO’s proposal to require firm transmission rights on the last leg of transmission may introduce opportunities for rights holders to exercise market power. During workshops, the CAISO responded to concerns about market power on fully subscribed interties with an analysis of market share on the California-Oregon Border (COB) and Nevada-Oregon Border (NOB) interties.[8] The CAISO used the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) to analyze market concentration among intertie rights holders.[9] Cal Advocates has identified several problems with this analysis which yield divergent conclusions.
First, the NOB intertie is a highly concentrated market.[10] Cal Advocates’ HHI replication yields a summer HHI of 2,677 and winter HHI of 2,794.[11] These HHI values are well over the 2,500 cutoff for a highly concentrated market, largely driven by the 46 percent share owned by Marketer 8. Marketer 8 is also the largest market rights share holder on the COB intertie and would benefit from the demand generated by this attestation requirement. The CAISO should not require firm transmission rights for RA imports unless the CAISO simultaneously implements a mechanism preventing intertie rights holders from exercising market power.
Second, the CAISO’s aggregation of the COB and NOB interties for the purpose of market share analysis is not reasonable. The COB intertie connects with the CAISO grid at California’s northern border with Oregon, while the NOB intertie connects to the Sylmar Power Converter station near Los Angeles in southern California.
Third, Cal Advocates’ replication of the CAISO’s HHI analysis shows that the aggregated market is moderately concentrated (HHI = 1,583) in winter and approaching moderately concentrated in summer (HHI = 1,405).[12] Again, the CAISO’s aggregation of the COB and NOB interties for analytical purposes is not reasonable. The results of the HHI analysis do not allay concerns about market power. Instead, the aggregate results of the HHI analysis indicate that market operators need to be alert to preventing market power.
Finally, an HHI analysis is an inadequate tool by itself to analyze market competition because it only considers the single transmission component of what would be a novel market. For example, if Marketer 8—holding about 46 percent of summer market share on the NOB intertie—is a large volume generator, it would be well-placed to exert market power under this proposal.
Recommendations
Cal Advocates recommends that the CAISO explore the transmission rights markets in greater depth before adopting a firm transmission requirement. The CAISO’s desire to increase the reliability of RA imports is prima facie reasonable, but the CAISO’s current proposal does not solve the commitment issues created by double-committed generators. On the RA Imports topic, Cal Advocates recommends:
- Replacing attestation requirements #1 and #2 with a single requirement that RA import contracts include a provision providing legal recourse to the SC if a generator double commits its capacity;
- Adopting attestation requirement #3 and enforcing it as soon as possible; and
- Substantial analysis of transmission rights markets and procedures before the CAISO adopts any firm transmission requirements. Alternatively, the CAISO could consider a pilot program requiring RA imports to meet one of either the CAISO’s import requirements, or the Commission’s, with a built-in evaluation after a defined amount of time.
[1] DFP1-6RSP, p. 33.
[2] Day 2 RA Enhancements Draft Final Proposal and Sixth Revised Straw Proposal Workshop, January 6, 2021 (RA-E 6RSP Workshop, January 6, 2021). http://www.caiso.com/InitiativeDocuments/Day2Presentation-ResourceAdequacyEnhancements-DraftFinalPropsoal-SixthRevisedStrawProposal.pdf
[3] RA-E 6RSP Workshop, January 6, 2021. Note that the CAISO did not state how it would verify the first or second requirements, indicating that the CAISO understands that that requirement may be unenforceable.
[4] CAISO email response to Cal Advocates, January 19, 2020.
[5] RA-E 6RSP Workshop, January 6, 2021, slides 55-56.
[6] Comments of Silicon Valley Power on the Extended Day-Ahead Market - Bundle 1 Straw Proposal in the CAISO Extended day-ahead market initiative, August 10, 2020, #3.
[7] CalCCA Comments on RA Enhancements September 15 and 17 Working Group, October 1, 2020, #3.
[8] RA-E 6RSP Workshop, January 6, 2021.
[9] The HHI is a commonly used measure to determine market concentration. The HHI is the sum of the squares of the market share in percentage terms of each entity. An HHI less than 1,500 is not considered a concentrated market, while an HHI between 1,500 and 2,500 is considered a moderately concentrated market, and an HHI above 2,500 is considered a highly concentrated market. For policy purposes, the higher the market concentration, the higher the likelihood that market power can be exercised by entities with large market share.
[10] During the RA-E 6RSP Workshop, January 6, 2021, the CAISO verbally noted only the (favorable) HHI results for the COB intertie, declining to report the HHI results for the NOB intertie.
[11] See attached analysis.
[12] See attached analysis.