4.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the discussion of potential measures to enhance revenue adequacy (slides 33-45 of the CAISO presentation). Which (if any) of the measures would your organization prioritize for further consideration and why?
Shift Factor Threshold
The CAISO’s current shift factor thresholds, and in particular the disparate treatment of certain types of settlement locations, are a root cause of congestion revenue inadequacy in the CAISO. More significantly, as explained by the CAISO staff at the CRR Enhancements Working Group in February 2025, the shift factor cut-off discrepancy is responsible for the “CRR Settlements Reversal” that occurs chronically on certain constraints. As a result, CRR auction participants avoid exposure to these constraints and are effectively unable to hedge at these locations. Reducing and standardizing shift factor thresholds should be a top priority for the CAISO in order to mitigate CRR Settlements Reversal and congestion revenue inadequacy more generally.
Recognizing the CAISO’s concerns of eliminating the shift factor cut-off threshold given the CAISO’s DAM optimization approach, the CAISO could lower the current 2% shift factor threshold on certain settlement point types incrementally over time to test the effect of reductions on market solve time. This would allow the CAISO to balance its optimization performance concerns with improving congestion revenue inadequacy. Reducing the shift factor threshold in this way would allow the CAISO to more accurately solve for congestion and collect missing congestion revenue in its day-head market.
Loop Flow Modeling
Consistent with the CAISO’s progress in modeling loop flows from all neighboring balancing areas, the CAISO should include element-specific derates for expected loop flows in its CRR model based on historical flow analysis and on EDAM data as it becomes available. Once the CAISO includes loop flows in its CRR model, it should reduce or eliminate the global derate factor, which indiscriminately limits the capacity available for allocation and auction. Explicit loop flow modeling highlights the need to expand the current CRR TOUs to better reflect how power flow patterns tend to shift over the course of the day. For instance, loop flow may account for a significant portion of the capacity on certain network elements, during peak solar hours but not in others.
Explicitly modeling loop flows will allow the CAISO and its market participants to better understand the scope of the loop flow issue. With better modeling, the CAISO should provide more information regarding unsettled flows in the day-ahead market. In addition to providing interval-level net settled flow data for all binding constraints in the day-ahead market as a part of the CRR Aggregated Revenue Adjustment Data on OASIS,[1] the CAISO also should provide similar data for unsettled flows.
Modeling Differences Between the DAM and CRR Markets
The CAISO should increase the accuracy of its CRR model to better match the day-ahead market on which CRRs settle. As the CAISO staff has suggested, the CAISO should update the CRR model after initial publication to ensure that it includes up-to-date expectations regarding system configuration. Adopting a more dynamic approach would allow the CAISO to reflect outages reported closer to auction closing times in auction models, which would better align the CRR model with the day-ahead market.
Outage Reporting and Transparency
The CAISO should continue its efforts to ensure more accurate and timely transmission outage reporting by incentivizing transmission owners to report planned outages consistently prior to CRR auction closing periods. Enforcing scheduled outage reporting deadlines, and publishing information regarding all scheduled outages reported up until auction close, would ensure that market participants are bidding and offering in the auction with the same information. The CAISO should consider how to incentivize accurate and timely outage reporting, e.g., by making auction revenue and surplus congestion revenue allocation contingent on compliance with outage reporting requirements.
In addition, the CAISO should end its practice of not updating its daily scheduled outages posting within a certain number of days (typically 20 days) before a CRR auction (the “freeze period”).[2] Instead, once an outage is reported, the scheduled outage data should be published for all market participants. The lack of reliable and up-to-date outage information adds to the risk of the unknown for each CRR auction participant, which is ultimately reflected in a higher risk premium (i.e., discount) on the amount they are willing to bid.
Line Rating Consistency and Transparency
The CAISO should implement changes to ensure that line ratings in the CRR model are as consistent as practicable with the line ratings used to settle the day-ahead market. When line ratings are lower in the day-ahead market than in the CRR model, the CAISO collects congestion on fewer megawatts of flow over the element than allocated or auctioned to CRR holders, resulting in congestion revenue inadequacy and CRR underfunding. The CAISO should publish all line ratings used to settle the day-ahead market and provide greater transparency on the criteria and reasons for adjusting day-ahead line ratings, so collectively CRR auction participants can form more accurate expectations regarding the value of future congestion and levels of underfunding.
Monthly CRR Models
If the CAISO stops allocating and auctioning seasonal CRRs in its annual process and instead offers CRRs for each individual month, CRR model accuracy would be improved. Monthly rather than seasonal CRRs would allow the CAISO to take a more granular and nuanced approach to modeling future system conditions, including loop flow. Auctioning CRRs for each month in a planning year also would facilitate a smooth transition between the models used in the annual CRR process and those used in subsequent monthly auctions.
Although DC Energy supports the continuation of the annual CRR process and would support the development of long-term CRR contracts similar to ERCOT and PJM, prompt-month CRR auctions provide the best opportunity for CRR models to more accurately reflect the likely system configuration in the day-ahead market during the settlement period. Therefore, more capacity should be made available for allocation and auction in prompt-month auctions, when settlement period system conditions are better known. Shifting some available capacity from the annual process to prompt-month auctions would complement other efforts to improve the accuracy of CRR models.
[1] See CRR 1B Post Implementation Issues, CAISO presentation, at slide 5 (Jan. 12, 2019), available at: https://www.caiso.com/documents/crr1bpostimplementationissuesupdate_june122019.pdf.
[2] See the CAISO Transmission Outages webpage, listing roughly 20-day cut off periods for inclusion of scheduled outages in the model of upcoming CRR auctions, at: https://www.caiso.com/market-operations/outages (certificate required for access); see also, https://www.caiso.com/documents/outagemanagementsystemtransmissionoutagereport-faq.pdf The freeze period was devised to prevent auction participants from targeting lines that would be underfunded due to unmodeled outages back when CRRs were guaranteed to be fully funded. CRRs are no longer fully funded and there is no longer any incentive to target constraints that may be underfunded due to recently reported outages.
6.
Please provide your organization’s comments on the discussion of potential measures to enhance auction design and efficiency (slides 47-58 of the CAISO presentation). Which (if any) of the measures discussed would your organization prioritize for further consideration and why?
Balance of Planning Period
The CAISO should prioritize the adoption of Balance of Planning Period (“BoPP”) style auctions. With BoPP style auctions, the CAISO would allocate and auction monthly CRRs for each month in the upcoming planning year in the annual CRR process. Then, each month, the CAISO would hold auctions for CRRs for each month remaining in the planning year. A BoPP style auction design would allow market participants to bid with more confidence because they would know that they could rebalance and adjust their positions incrementally as market conditions develop over time. This would allow market participants to more effectively use CRRs to manage their expectations of future risk. For example, BoPP style monthly auctions provide market participants the opportunity to hedge and readjust their CRR portfolios in anticipation of critical summer and winter months.
Congestion Revenue Inadequacy Allocation
Before addressing allocation issues, the CAISO first should prioritize enhancements to address the root causes of congestion revenue inadequacy. If the CAISO explicitly accounts for unscheduled loop flows in its CRR models, improves outage reporting and transparency, and reduces and standardizes its shift factor threshold, it will reduce the total amount of congestion revenue inadequacy that must be allocated as well as the risk of CRR Settlements Reversal.
“Willing Seller” / Price Swap Construct
CRR auctions are foundational to open access in ISO markets because they provide open access to the financial equivalent of firm transmission service to all potential market participants, including potential new entrants. The CAISO should focus on the proposed improvements and enhancements to the existing CRR market design and enhance rather than eliminate its CRR auctions. The proposal to replace the current CRR auction structure with a market dependent on “willing” sellers (“price swap construct”) should not be a priority in the current stakeholder initiative and, ultimately, should not be needed once the existing CRR auctions are improved.
The price swap construct differs from the proposal the Commission already has rejected only because it would require the CAISO to provide a platform for facilitating a simple nodal auction open to all market participants, which would include a second class of participants, e.g., generation owners, power marketers and financial participants. The addition of such a platform is inadequate to serve as the financial equivalent of firm transmission service and would not provide a robust congestion hedging function. Furthermore, it includes no concept of network topology and cannot find the simultaneously feasible solution that maximizes the use of networked transmission capacity.
In addition, returning all congestion revenue to load would greatly diminish any incentive for load serving entities to respond to the marginal cost at their settlement locations by seeking more efficient, least cost sources of power, pursuing demand response, siting large load facilities efficiently, or investing in storage technology. Congestion itself would become a discriminatory charge, applying only to those without an entitlement (i.e., CRR allocation), such as new market entrants, generators subject to interconnection and deliverability charges, and those seeking to schedule higher volumes of exports from the CAISO than their entitlement allows.
The long-run harm of this discriminatory dynamic cannot be overstated. Most generation owners and developers are reliant on power purchase agreements (PPAs) with load serving entities in the CAISO. Under the price swap construct, each time a PPA is negotiated with a generator, that is constrained down because it is located in a constrained generation pocket, the load serving entity would have an advantage, because it would face no day-ahead congestion risk, and could demand to purchase power at the generator’s bus bar price. Whereas the generator would face the full risk of congestion; unless, it obtains a price swap hedging its exposure. Obtaining a hedge, however, would be more difficult and more expensive under the price swap construct than in today’s CRR auctions. A full hedge would only be available in the unlikely scenario that another entity provides sufficient counterflow at the generator’s specific location to cover the total volume of power sales. Such a scenario would be even less likely for new generation resources interconnecting at new resource nodes.
Thus, the dynamics under a price swap construct would diminish the incentive for generators, including renewable resources, as well as battery resources, to operate and develop new capacity in the CAISO market. This is exactly the opposite of what is needed in the CAISO in light of expected high demand growth. Transmission, generation, as well as battery and large load developers would lose vital price transparency with the elimination of CRR auctions. The lack of price transparency would raise risk premiums, increase project costs, jeopardize, or at least harm, the ability of companies to finance new infrastructure developments, and ultimately raise barriers to entry.
The elimination of CRR auctions in the CAISO would be particularly harmful for companies developing new generation resources. New generation resources establish a new resource node as part of the generation interconnection process. Today, a greenfield utility-scale solar project developer in the CAISO can rely on CRR auctions to produce reliable market-based prices for expected future congestion on paths sourcing from a newly added but as yet unenergized resource node. Under the price swap construct, there would be no simultaneously feasible single-clearing market solution to provide an efficient price on paths sourcing from this new resource node.
Limiting Market Participants in CRR Auctions
The CAISO should dismiss the proposal to limit auction participation to physical energy market participants because it is unduly discriminatory, does not result in open access, and is counterproductive to the goal of improving auction efficiency. CRRs “play a key role in ensuring open access to firm transmission service by providing the opportunity to all market participants to acquire congestion hedges.”[1] Open access for all market participants includes new market entrants, project developers, and financial entities. Restricting CRR market participation to load serving entities, physical transmission customers, or any other class of market participants would be unduly discriminatory and violate open access.
Restricting market participation would reduce CRR auction revenue. The auction awards each CRR to the market participant that values it the most and is the most willing to accept the associated risk. Each additional bid for CRR capacity is an opportunity for increased auction revenue and each incremental cleared bid necessarily benefits the auction clearing optimization, which seeks to maximize auction revenue. Eliminating whole classes of auction participants willing to bid for CRR capacity will, of course, reduce auction revenue.
Open access to CRR auctions supports robust participation in the day-ahead market and allows generators and competitive retail providers, as well as project developers and the financial entities that facilitate their transactions, to manage their day-ahead congestion risk more effectively than the secondary market, ultimately reducing the cost of power purchase agreements in the CAISO.
Minimum Reservation Price
The CAISO should dismiss the proposal to institute an administratively-set, non-market minimum transaction price for CRRs.
In the Issue Paper on Revenue Adequacy and Auction Efficiency Enhancements published on January 14th, the CAISO cited PJM as an example of an equivalent auction with a minimum transaction price. However, PJM’s minimum bid price only applies to FTR options, which are not available in the CAISO CRR auction. There is no minimum bid price on FTR obligations in PJM, which are equivalent to CRRs in the CAISO. Unlike an obligation, the purchase price of an option is the most its holder can lose. So, a purchaser of $0 options essentially has no settlement risk and only financial upside. In contrast, the holder of an obligation always has potential settlement risk.
Because the volume of CRR capacity offered for sale at auction has increased over time, it is clear that at least some transmission customers agree that offering allocated CRRs for sale at auction provides commensurate value compared to their internal valuations of expected future congestion.[2] Furthermore, the high rates at which offered capacity clears at auction indicate that auction prices are higher than reservation prices.[3]
In such a paradigm, CAISO would be responsible for forecasting reservation prices for CRRs. Any inaccuracy in these forecasts would lead to market inefficiency. For example, if a CRR was worth less than the CAISO’s reservation price, then the CRR capacity would be effectively held back from the auction, garnering no auction revenue even when market participants were willing to pay some amount for the capacity. Valuing future congestion takes considerable effort to do properly and establishing a reservation price for all CRRs would be an inefficient use of scarce CAISO resources.
CRRs that cleared for prices at or close to zero do not account for an outsize portion of congestion revenues paid to CRR holders. According to data presented by Dr. Guillermo Bautista-Alderete at the February 27, 2025 working group meeting, CRRs acquired for prices ranging from $0MWh through $0.2MWh did not experience particularly high or the highest profits among CRRs by clearing price range in any month since 2019.[4] If a particular CRR clears at or just above zero, it reflects the market’s collective determination that the path is unlikely to experience congestion or could experience congestion in both directions that nets close to zero. In most cases, this collective determination is correct given the low profitability of CRRs that clear in this price range.
Furthermore, DC Energy does not know how the CAISO could realistically establish a reservation price on all potential paths within the auction clearing mechanism itself. The CAISO cannot simultaneously offer all possible combinations of simultaneously feasible CRR obligation awards. That is, the CAISO cannot a priori offer the available capacity in the network as a set of CRR paths offered at reservation prices with volumes that together match the available capacity. The CAISO should not pre-process market bids, e.g., eliminate CRR bids with prices below the reservation price, because if there is not sufficient volume bid to consume capacity, then the market would clear at zero dollars, defeating the purpose of a reservation price. The CAISO also cannot post-process market awards, e.g., cancel awards that are priced below the reservation price, because this could lead to infeasible solutions that would exacerbate revenue adequacy.
[1] PJM Interconnection, L.L.C., 178 FERC ¶ 61,170 at P 44 (2022). See also, DC Energy’s Dec. 12, 2024 comments to this Working Group; and ETI’s presentation at the May 12, 2025 Working Group meeting for further supporting precedent.
[2] See Congestion Revenue Enhancements, CAISO presentation, at slide 8 (Feb. 27, 2025), available at: https://stakeholdercenter.caiso.com/InitiativeDocuments/Presentation-Congestion-Revenue-Rights-Enhancements-Feb-27-2025.pdf
[3] Id.
[4] Id., at slide 31.